Estonia's prospects at the start of the Nations League
Read VivatBet's preview of the Nations League opener.
In the previous edition of the tournament, our team was outperformed by Sweden, with international stars Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, and by Slovakia, who reached the play-offs of Euro 2024. It's no surprise that all 4 points in that group came against Azerbaijan, who finished last and were relegated to League D.
This time, Estonia's opponents in League C look somewhat more manageable: Bulgaria's best years were back in the 1990s, Iceland's golden generation of the 2010s has also gradually faded from the top level, and Luxembourg has never made much noise in European football, aside from reaching the quarter-finals of Euro 1964 — an achievement barely remembered even in the country itself today.
The first four rounds: a test of resilience
Starting this season, UEFA decided to build longer breaks into the club calendar around international matches. How this will affect national teams is still an open question. In theory, it should favor teams with a higher average player level, but it remains to be seen how actively coaches will rotate their squads when every match carries real tournament significance.
Estonia's schedule for the opening stretch looks like this:
September 29: away match in Bulgaria
October 3: home match against Luxembourg
October 6: home match against Iceland
Two away matches within a week against higher-ranked opponents is an opening that will set the tone right away. If the team wants to compete for the top of the table, some points will need to come from these road games. What's more, the greater psychological pressure in these matches will fall on the home sides.
Odds for the opening matches are already available on VivatBet sports betting:
Iceland vs Estonia: 1 – 1.37, X – 4.54, 2 – 9.7
Bulgaria vs Estonia: 1 – 1.53, X – 3.72, 2 – 6.19
After that comes a stretch of home matches, meaning the game against Luxembourg could prove decisive for the group. A win there would be crucial — it would at least give Estonia a realistic shot at staying in League C for the next edition too. After that comes the return match against Iceland, which Estonia will approach either full of confidence or out of sheer necessity — either way, they'll need to give everything.
How have the teams performed this year?
Iceland failed to win any of their five matches in the first half of 2026, though all five opponents had qualified for the World Cup — Iceland lost to Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Argentina, and drew with Haiti.
Bulgaria had an easier run: in March they beat the Solomon Islands and Indonesia, then in June drew with Moldova and lost to Montenegro.
Luxembourg won their Nations League play-off against Malta, then lost 0-1 to an Italy side fielding a youth squad, before beating Albania by the same scoreline.
Our team's March matches — a draw with Kenya and a loss to Rwanda — were disappointing, but the Baltic Cup success, with narrow wins over the Faroe Islands and Lithuania, gives reason for cautious optimism.
What to expect from the upcoming matches
A lot will depend on Jakob Hein's individual performance in goal, but the Werder Bremen keeper started the new season as his club's first choice, and there's reason to hope he'll be in good form for the international matches. Whether the outfield players can convert their chances, however, remains a bigger question.
Estonia's realistic goal for this cycle is to stay in League C; the maximum ambition would be a fight for second place. Every point in this stretch of matches will be earned the hard way — there's no fixture with as clear an outcome as the one against Sweden last time. And that's exactly what makes this upcoming period so interesting.
Follow the national team's Nations League campaign with VivatBet Estonia!
